Malawi: Survey Places MCP Ahead Of September 2025 Elections

By Smile Hamilton, Malawi

The International Institute for Research and Development (IIRD Africa), a Malawi-based consulting firm, has released a nationwide pre-election survey indicating that the Malawi Congress Party (MCP) is leading the race ahead of the September 2025 polls.

The survey, conducted between 11 August and 3 September 2025, sampled 5,002 respondents across the country.

Of these, 44.9 per cent were from the Central Region, 42.7 per cent from the Southern Region, and 12.4 per cent from the Northern Region.

Findings show that MCP, led by President Lazarus Chakwera, commands 56.5 per cent support, translating to about 4.07 million votes.

This positions MCP as the only party projected to surpass the 50%+1 threshold required for an outright first-round victory.

Former President Peter Mutharika’s Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) follows in second place with 27.2 per cent support, equivalent to 1.96 million votes. The survey shows that the DPP’s strength remains concentrated in the Southern Region but weaker in the Central and Northern regions.

The United Transformation Movement (UTM), under the leadership of Dalitso Kabambe, secured third place with 6.6 percent support (480,000 votes). Analysts noted the party’s popularity is stronger among youth and urban voters. Other parties, including UDF, PP, OZAM, PDP, and independent candidates, collectively managed about 8 percent support, though this remains fragmented.

Presenting the findings, Dr. Kennedy Luwegha, Director at IIRD Africa, said the survey confirms MCP’s strong position across the country. “Our data shows that MCP has consolidated support in the Central and Northern regions, giving it a significant national advantage despite its weaknesses in the South,” he explained.

His colleague, Professor Dyson Kajani, added that the survey also highlighted pressing voter concerns. “The economy and rising prices are clearly the number one issue for Malawians at 49 per cent, followed by food security, youth employment, and corruption. These priorities will play a key role in shaping the election outcome,” Kajani said.