KENYA: How President Ruto’s Luo Nyanza Fortunes Changed After Raila Deal

By Lisbeth Micheni, Kenya

President William Ruto’s inclusion of key Orange Democratic movement bigwigs in his Kenya Kwanza Cabinet, has seemingly strengthened his political dividends in Raila Odinga’s Luo Nyanza heartland.

Since his divorce from Raila in 2011, Ruto received what analysts’ term as a heroic welcome for a prodigal son, signaling a possible partnership ahead of 2027.

Ruto was a key pillar of Raila’s Orange Democratic movement and served as a member of the Pentagon, a conference of regional bigwigs who called the shots in the orange party before his hostile departure.

Despite criticisms, some quarters within Orange Democratic Movement honor president Ruto as a steadfast and bold politician who never shies away from taking the bull by its horns, given his instrumental role in Raila’s 2007 campaigns.

Ruto was among Orange Democratic movement pillars who were the face of Raila’s 2007 presidential campaigns, including Musalia Mudavadi, Charity Ngilu and Najib Balala who together with Odinga formed the Pentagon.

Ruto’s historic return to Luo Nyanza as President at a time when he is enjoying the backing of Raila’s camp could rewrite history and cement his grip on the country.

For the first time in more than 15 years, Ruto on Tuesday received a heroic welcome, as he started his four-day tour of Raila’s turf with high-ranking Orange Democratic movement assistants lining up to receive him.

Lifting the lid on the significance of the latest tour of the opposition stronghold, the president has lined up political events including attending the homecoming ceremonies of his latest Cabinet Secretaries from Luo Nyanza.

On Wednesday, the president graced a thanksgiving service for National Treasury Cabinet Secretary, John Mbadi, the immediate former Orange Democratic movement national chairman who resigned to take up a Cabinet Secretary slot.

He stormed Siaya County on Friday where he launched development projects and attended the homecoming ceremony of Energy and Petroleum Cabinet Secretary Opiyo Wandayi.

Political analysts say the tour was a political visit couched as a development tour to assess the people’s reception of the formation of the broad-based government.

According to David Onyango, a Kisumu-based policy analyst, Ruto is keen on shoring up his support in Luo Nyanza as a political catalyst that could bolster his 2027 reelection chances.

He said: “It is true this is one of Ruto’s most significant tours of Luo Nyanza, but it is again coming after the formation of the broad-based government with the focus being auditing the impact of that arrangement in Raila’s territory.

“The writings are on the wall, Ruto’s 2027 strategy is clear that he is reviving his Luo Nyanza ties to enhance his chances of reelection.”

During his tour, the president paraded the senior government officials from Luo Nyanza working in his Kenya Kwanza administration to appease the public and build confidence.

His reconciliation with Raila and following appointment of Orange Democratic movement big guns into the government appears to have changed fortunes for Ruto in Luo Nyanza.

Raila’s allies have embarked on overdrive to motivate the region in Ruto’s favor during his four-day tour of the region, signaling a wind of change that could benefit the president.

Lake Victoria South Water and Works Development chairman Odiyo Owiti said the Luo Nyanza region has embraced Ruto, recalling the 2007 partnership.

During the disputed announcement of the 2007 presidential polls at Kenyatta International Convention Centre, Ruto took on the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission Chairperson Samuel Kivuitu and some of the Party of National Unity assistants including Martha Karua.

The late Mwai Kibaki was declared President after the controversial results were announced triggering clashes that put the country on the edge, ushering in a Grand Coalition government in which Raila served as prime minister.

There are signals that President Ruto’s decision to work with Raila could herald a new political dawn that will reshape the 2027 presidential contest.

Political analysts argue that the dynamics are tipped to change in the coming months as Ruto showcases the impact of his deal with Orange Democratic movement, and Raila’s African Union Commission chairperson’s bid gets on course.

President Ruto on Tuesday rolled a red carpet for Raila as he launched his candidacy for the African Union Commission job at a ceremony attended by three heads of State from the region.

Ruto’s public backing of Raila, hours before embarking on his Luo Nyanza tour highlighted his political strategy to balance the African Union Commission’s bid with his Luo Nyanza charm offensive.

Speaking during his tour of Luo Nyanza, Ruto hinted at a possible 2027 deal with Raila’s Orange Democratic movement party as opposition bigwigs assured him of their support.

“I hope you understand these things. There will be some pronouncements we will make in future. But for now, let’s concentrate on development and then we will make major plans later,” Ruto said.

Ahead of the 2022 polls, Ruto’s presidential campaigns in Luo Nyanza were rocked with chaotic scenes and heckling as residents affirmed their support for Raila.

In 2021, Ruto’s motorcade was stoned during his campaigns in Kisumu at the height of his hostility with Raila, his main opponent in the 2022 polls.

In June 2022, Ruto’s huge billboard which had been erected in Kisumu Central Business District was brought down at night as residents became hostile to Ruto’s campaigns.

However, on Wednesday evening President Ruto made a grand entry into Kisumu, a stark contrast with his past visits – signaling the changing fortunes for the former Orange Democratic movement member.

Locals lined Oginga Odinga Street to welcome him, singing and dancing, and waving white handkerchiefs—a gesture of peace and tranquility.